So looks like Trump’s Convention bounce is coming in right on schedule and size: some polls showing him up a few, some down a few, in a tighter race. Of course the CHAOS AT THE CONVENTIONS didn’t change any minds. That’s not how conventions work. Not really even how politics works, actually.
One of the 538 models has Trump up, the other Clinton. Makes perfect sense for this moment in the race. One of their models is a “now-cast,” the other a “forecast.” The former shows Trump winning, the later losing. That’s exactly what you would expect to see from a small bounce in a close race.But remember: this isn’t sports, so although the now-cast is useful for identifying short-term trends, it by design doesn’t tell us about the longer term. This isn’t actually a race, so don’t think of it like one, no matter how hard they try to get you to.
Oh, and as a partisan? I’m **THRILLED** Trump is up on the now-cast. Turnout will determine this election, and I want EVERYONE on my team to realize that nothing can be taken for granted this year. Fear is a powerful motivator.
Looking ahead…i would expect Hillary to get a bounce as well. That will fade, leaving us roughly where we were prior to the conventions. Once we get into September the polls will become more predictive, but they will still be noisy. Expect Trump to take the lead once or twice between September 1 and Election Day, each time slipping back behind Clinton.
And no, I’m not altering my “5-point Clinton victory in a record-setting turnout election” prediction. Why would I? So far, everything has gone exactly as I expected!