Brexit Still Unlikely To Happen

I’ve been saying this since the referendum passed: Britain’s and the EU’s combined institutional structures make it extraordinarily unlikely that the UK will ever leave the EU. This things coming down to the wire, and lookie here what happened today:

Tuesday’s contempt vote against her government — which is basically Parliament telling the government that it’s preventing the body from doing its job — had never happened before in British history.

And that wasn’t even May’s biggest defeat of the day:

2 thoughts on “Brexit Still Unlikely To Happen

  1. waitThisIsntReddit

    Doesn’t the EU have some very strong deterrent tested interests in making sure Brexit does happen? And wouldn’t removing the U.K. strengthen the ability of E.U. politics bodies to change policy in a more substantial way?


    1. Alex Whalen

      Wouldn’t forcing the UK’s hand such that it had to stay in the EU but with substantially diminished influence be an even greater deterrent to anyone thinking they might want to leave? The United States only transitioned from the plural “these United States” to the singular “the United States” after the Civil War conclusively demonstrated that any attempt to leave would fail in a manner that left the states involved substantially diminished. The parallel isn’t nearly perfect, but the end results feels like it would be similar to me. No one will ever look at the UK the same again, not even the Brits. Who would want to follow in those footsteps?


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